Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
