Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
