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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still